We’re Not Out of the #Quad4 Woods Yet

In this clip from The Macro Show, Keith McCullough delivered a reality check to those prematurely calling for a shift to Quad 1. If the U.S. markets had exited Quad 4, then the Russell 2000 would not be struggling as it has been.

“Yesterday was not a Quad 1 day from a small cap factor exposure perspective,” he says, referencing the continued weakness in small caps—especially value names that typically benefit in a true Quad 1 environment.

“We’ve not been long the Russell… it was down 0.7% yesterday, while the S&P was up 0.2%. [The Russell’s] down over 14% from where it just peaked in Quad 4.”

As always, McCullough emphasized a data-driven, timestamped approach over narratives, even poking fun at those he called “Only fans of people on Twitter that talk about recessions.”

But he reminded viewers that Q1 was still a Quad 4 quarter, and earnings season will reflect that: “There is a 100% chance… you will see Quad 4 realities in many company panels.”

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